Stocks Go "Crash! BANG! (tinkle)!" Bears Go "Yum!" Bulls Go "MOO?!"
Today's toilet flushing was fueled initially by a Commerce Department report that business inventories rose by half-a-percent, extending an upward-sloping trend line that now stretches five straight months.
This, coupled with yesterday's latest Johnson Redbook report of eroding same-store retail sales, pointed investors toward the exits at the stock market, and money began to flow toward the safer bond market, where prices moved upward through the day on surging demand for securities less volatileand therefore less riskythan the stock markets could offer. The doom-and-gloom on Wall Street was not to be abated by what otherwise would have been positive news about oil prices slumping back toward the $50 per barrel mark.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
The Johnson Redbook, published by Johnson Research, samples same-store sales from the retailers that dominate the department stores sector.
Many investors seem to have determined that the economic damage of four years of fiscal mismanagement by the ruling political party in Washington has already been done, and any good news from day to day simply gets swept aside in bearish overall market sentiment. As the index of 30 industrials slides ever closer to the 10,000 point level, more investors may see an inevitable, long-term, bear market setting in and sell out of stocks, thereby increasing the downward momentum stock prices are experiencing.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
Some market observers believe that, once overall sentiment of investors turns up or down, news that confirms the sentiment fuels market reactions, but news contrary to the sentiment is largely ignored.
With the U.S. House of Representatives today passing tough bankruptcy reform legislation, formerly wealthy Wall Street investors may find themselves on the rack with poorer people having financial difficulties. More important, however, will be how the neo-conservative radicals explain why privatized Social Security accounts, wherein workers invest retirement savings in stocks and bonds, are going to provide any kind of security when stock portfolios are suffering massive losses and have been for as long as the Republicans have been in office. It remains to be seen if President Bush will go so far as to promote his desired destruction of the public pension system by telling voters that his plan will ultimately work as long as people stop voting for Republicans.
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I heard another interesting thing tonight on NPR's Marketplace financial show. They mentioned how just before the market's closing bell IBM issued their 2nd Quarter earnings numbers. Turns out they were really lower than anyone expected and lots lower than the forecast the market was looking for.
So the Marketplace commentator basically said that all Tech stocks are going to be on rollercoaster tomorrow as the market reacts to IBM's revelation.
Also I'm looking for a good Canadian Bank or US Bank with a Canadian arm to open an account with when I go up there so I can have an easy way to move funds around. For the little bit of funds I will have....
I figured with all the good financial gurus around here someone could point me in the right direction.
Have a great night everyone.
-Gary A
That would be a bold move by Bush. If he came out and said "If you wanted to live like a Republican, you should have voted Democrat," I would think that is the first intelligent thing he has said.
Good evening, Gary. The fun with tech stocks has already begun. By tomorrow morning, anyone planning to make a move on the information will be pretty much out of luck, although I suppose little investors can believe that the SOES (small order entry system) could do something for them in a situation such as this.
Anyway, I'll bet Mr. Goat knows more about cross-border banking than I do these days. Back in the olden times, I was pretty handy with that kind of stuff, but now there are all kinds of silly things called "enforced rules" in effect that just take all the fun out of moving currency around.
How I long for the good times, when derivatives were something you did in calculus classes and financial transactions in the world of consulting always had a slightly unfresh smell about them, even if they were entirely legit.
The Dark Wraith looks back fondly.
Ah, there you are, Scott. I was wondering if you were ever going to speak your peace over here on The Dark Wraith Forums.
For those of you who don't know Scott, he runs the Me4President blog, a deliciously irreverent tomb—er, tome—generally skewering politics and the Republicans who malpractice it.
I should note, however, that Scott dabbled briefly with the idea of running for Pope instead of President, but that idea went by the wayside once he found out that being the Pope meant having to off a whole lot of prospective contenders along the way to the throne of St. Peter.
Now, Scott, as far as I'm concerned, if the Republicans were to openly admit that voters shouldn't vote for them if those voters want to live like them, I would gladly oblige and not vote for such honest Republicans.
However, if the Republicans continue their charade of actually asking people to vote for them, even though voting for them is a guarantee of a trip to the poorhouse for most of the voters who obligingly vote for them, well, by God, I wouldn't vote for them.
It remains to be seen, then: either I don't vote for Republicans, or I don't vote for Republicans.
The Dark Wraith faces the deeply self-dividing prospect of not or not.
[GOD! but I need to cut back on the coffee at this hour.]
I'll be of little help to Gary with with the logistics of banking in Canada. The only cross-border banking I'm familiar with is being asked to declare if I'm carrying more than $10,000 when I've travelled into Mexico. And payola to the local Policia isn't really a form of banking either.
I do know though, that a new community bank (Business Bank of Skagit County) just yesterday opened in Burlington, WA, which is ballpark about an hour south of the border. Some of the management is from the Bellingham area, and those folks have probably done a ton of transactions into/out of Canada.
As a startup bank they may be offering competative rates (relatively speaking) to bring in new deposits. On the other hand, any wire fees might eat any gains you might make with an above market rate.
Beyond that, good luck.
Ahh, The wondrous stock market. I got my statement from my 401k...it began Jan first, and I've lost slightly more than 1%. At my investment level, that's $2 folks.
I'm amused. I truly wish I could be a fly on the wall and view the uncomfortable squirmings that must be occuring among the powers that be at the financial news...assuming of course any of them still have a toehold in reality. Then again, maybe I don't want to be a fly on the wall. It would be just too frightening to see that it is actual divorcement from reality among our policy makers, rather than cynical dishonesty. The latter has a long history among politicos in this nation. The former smacks of the need to send in the men in white coats to haul off our government enmass for treatment of delusions and sociopathic tendencies.
As a side note, I wrote a rather long rambling rant on a site full of conservatives the other day. Since from experiance, most of the regulars there won't read more than a paragraph long post, I copied it to my rather cobwebby blog if anyone is interested. Basically a response to the accusation of "lack" of coverage by the "liberal media" as pertains to Sandy whats-is-names smuggling out of and destruction of copies of secret documents.
Good evening, Wild Clover.
For the benefit of those who haven't seen it, here is the link to Clover's Field.
It seems to me that a whole lot of people are going to be seeing rather annoying erosion in their portfolio value statements over the next few months. After being okay with a President who lies to take us to war, who fails utterly to protect us from mass murdering maniacs, who thinks it's cute to demean the full faith and credit of the United States Treasury, and who has committed other high crimes and misdemeanors, perhaps the good people of this nation will finally have had enough when his radicalism hits them in their wallets.
Oh, well. I'll take moral outrage any way I can get it, I suppose.
The Dark Wraith loves the wind that comes before a gathering spring storm.
In catching up on blogs I only peruse now & then I learn that almost a week ago Paul Volker wrote this for WaPo:
Greenspan may be a useless hack, but his predecessor sees things just the same as the Dark Wraith.
It sucks being Cassandra, but at least (& unlike her) you aren't alone, DW!
- oddjob
Good morning, OddJob.
I hadn't been following Volker's doings in recent years, so I genuinely appreciate you apprizing me of what he's saying these days.
As I have noted in the past, Volker is a giant, cigar-smoking, rather unlikeable sort of fellow. To be in resonance with a man like that is... is...
refreshing?
Yes: refreshing.
The Dark Wraith considers asking Volker to share a stogey and a Greenspan sneer-fest.
Greenspan's mother found. Scientists find eggs in dinosaur mom
Good morning All:
I just got off work, and rushed home to post a question for the economists and folks here. WHY ON GOD'S GREEN EARTH DID OUR GAS PRICES DROP A FULL 10cents????? I'm rather POed I filled my tank when I got there, because 20 minutes later I saw what I would have sworn we would not see except during a gas war...gas at under $2/gallon. I know the price of a barrel dropped Friday. BUT 10 CENTS?
Someone, somewhere is playing games. I'm just awfully suspicious considering Greenspans'recent (Bush years) record of calling the economy that this occurs on the heels of his statement that gas prices would stabilize.
I just needed to get this off my chest.
Good morning right back at ya, Wild Clover.
Actually, there had been some price pressure downward through last week; but one step up from retailers, the distributors were holding price up as long as they could. It all came crashing down as world oil prices began to react rather severely to the prospects that the American economy really is at the beginning of what might be a tailspin.
Until recently, the only people talking about a recession had been one or two strange fellows who run blogs. Now, the really respectable sorts of people are beginning to whisper the "R" word, and that's when the commodities markets get all kinds of worried that slackening demand is going to push prices down some time in the next couple of quarters.
The way markets work, expectations about tomorrow end up rather swiftly becoming price dynamics today; hence, if there's a good chance that the U.S. economy is going to weaken down the road, oil prices will start showing that immediately.
Also interesting is that it isn't just the U.S. economy that's showing serious weakness. The British are also pumping out economic data that is troublesome. This means that Europe, which makes a lot of money selling stuff to us, could get sucked into the whirlwind. And then, with Europe, Britain, and the United States all starting to grovel around like old geezers, China begins to stagger, since it just about lives off its export industries, which will be shot in the buttocks if the rest of the world gets too poor to buy the Chinese cheapo-special junk.
Do you see what's happening? A bad scenario for the rest of the year and possibly longer is playing out right here and now in gasoline prices. As I noted above, the distributors tried to hold the price as long as they could, but the competitive nature of their business finally got the better of them, and wholesale prices started to ease back. Once that happened, the gas stations—desperate as they were for a reprieve to pass along to their customers—wasted no time in passing the price decreases right to their pump numbers.
And yes, I waited as long as I could to buy some gas this week, but I finally almost ran out yesterday morning, so I broke down and bought a couple of gallons. Of course, the price dropped about an hour after I'd put that stupid gas into my tank.
That's life I guess: the rich get richer, and the Dark Wraith is too risk averse to try to make it to work on gasoline vapors.
The Dark Wraith needs to buy a horse.
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